Why Has 2026 Been So Wet? The UK's Relentless Rain Explained

If you feel like it has not stopped raining since Christmas, you are not imagining it. Early 2026 has been one of the wettest starts to a year on record across large parts of the UK, with flooding, broken rainfall records, and a jet stream pattern that shows little sign of shifting.

Here is what is happening, why it is happening, and when we might finally get a break.

How Wet Has It Actually Been?

The numbers tell a striking story. Several regions have smashed long-standing rainfall records in the opening weeks of 2026.

Reading recorded 31 consecutive days of measurable precipitation, the longest such streak since records began there in 1908. Some locations across the UK experienced 41 or more consecutive rainy days.

In Somerset, approximately 29 square miles of the Levels and Moors have been flooded. The River Otter at Ottery St Mary in Devon exceeded its highest ever recorded level during Storm Chandra in late January, peaking at 2.83 metres and breaking the previous record of 2.81 metres set in December 2000.

Why Will It Not Stop Raining?

The short answer is the jet stream. The longer answer involves some fascinating atmospheric science.

The Jet Stream Explained

The jet stream is a narrow band of fast-moving air several miles above the Earth's surface. It acts like an atmospheric conveyor belt, steering weather systems across the Atlantic toward Europe. Its position determines whether the UK gets settled, dry weather or wave after wave of rain.

This winter, the jet stream has been sitting unusually far south, running directly across or just south of the British Isles. That position funnels one low-pressure system after another straight at us, bringing persistent rain and wind with barely a gap between fronts.

Why Is the Jet Stream Stuck?

Several factors are combining to lock the jet stream in this unfavourable position:

• Cold air masses over North America are creating a strong temperature contrast that energises the jet stream
• High-pressure systems over northern Europe are blocking the jet stream from shifting northward
• A persistent blocking pattern keeps weather fronts stalled over the UK rather than clearing through to the east

When these factors align, the result is exactly what we have been experiencing: relentless, day-after-day rainfall with no sustained dry periods.

The Climate Change Connection

While no single wet spell can be blamed entirely on climate change, the physics is straightforward. A warmer atmosphere holds approximately 7% more moisture for every one degree Celsius of warming. That means when it does rain, the rainfall tends to be heavier and more intense.

Researchers at the University of Reading, including hydrology professors Jess Neumann and Hannah Cloke, have noted that these rainfall extremes align closely with patterns that climate scientists have been predicting for British winters for decades. The trend is clear: total annual rainfall has remained relatively stable, but heavy rainfall events are becoming more intense.

From Hosepipe Bans to Flooding in Under a Year

One of the most remarkable aspects of 2026's wet start is how recently the UK was dealing with the opposite problem. The spring and summer of 2025 were exceptionally dry, with hosepipe bans imposed across parts of England as reservoirs dropped to concerning levels.

The swing from drought to deluge within a single year illustrates a pattern that climate scientists have been warning about: not necessarily more rain overall, but greater extremes in both directions. Longer dry spells followed by more intense wet periods, with less of the moderate, steady rainfall that used to characterise British weather.

Where Has Been Hit Hardest?

South West England

The South West has borne the brunt of the rainfall. Cornwall recorded its wettest January on record, and communities across Somerset, Devon, and Dorset have experienced repeated flooding. The Somerset Levels, which sit at or below sea level in places, have been particularly badly affected with thousands of acres under water.

Wales and Western Scotland

As the first landmass to meet Atlantic weather systems, western regions always receive the heaviest rainfall. This winter has amplified that pattern, with western Wales and the Scottish Highlands receiving well above their already high averages.

Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland has experienced what the Met Office described as "exceptional" rainfall totals, with saturated ground meaning even moderate further rainfall leads quickly to surface water flooding.

Eastern England

Even the typically drier eastern side of the country has not escaped. Reading's 31-day rain streak shows how far east the persistent rainfall has reached, though totals in the east remain lower than in western regions.

The Impact on the Ground

The consequences of sustained heavy rainfall go beyond puddles and soggy commutes:

Flooding: Hundreds of flood warnings and alerts have been issued across England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland. River levels remain dangerously high in many catchments, and the saturated ground means even light further rainfall can cause rapid rises.

Transport disruption: Roads have been closed, rail services cancelled, and journey times significantly extended across affected regions. Driving through floodwater remains a serious risk; it takes just 30cm of flowing water to move a car.

Agriculture: Farmers across the UK are reporting waterlogged fields, delayed planting, and concerns about crop losses. Livestock have been moved to higher ground in flood-prone areas.

Coastal erosion: Repeated storms and high seas have accelerated coastal erosion along stretches of the Norfolk, Suffolk, Yorkshire, and Dorset coastlines. Each storm removes material that takes years to build up, and consecutive events give the coast no time to recover.

When Will It Stop Raining?

This is the question everyone is asking, and unfortunately the answer is not what most people want to hear.

Short Term (Late February)

The Met Office expects February to remain unsettled, with further spells of rain, showers, and hill snow. Rain will be heaviest and most frequent in the west, with eastern areas seeing smaller amounts. It will often be windy, with a chance of gales at times. There may be some drier interludes between weather systems, but a sustained shift to settled conditions is not expected this month.

Medium Term (March)

The Environment Agency and Met Office have jointly warned that unsettled weather is expected to continue until at least mid-March. The most likely pattern is a continuation of changeable conditions, with low-pressure systems passing close to or across the UK bringing further spells of wet and windy weather, particularly in the north and west.

Longer Term (Spring)

Historically, the jet stream begins to weaken and shift northward through March and April as the temperature contrast between the tropics and the poles decreases. This typically brings more settled conditions, though spring can still produce significant rainfall events.

The best chance of a sustained dry spell probably lies in late April or May, when high-pressure systems become more common. But long-range forecasts carry significant uncertainty, and 2026 has already shown it is not following typical patterns.

How to Stay Prepared

Check Flood Risk

• Monitor the Environment Agency flood warnings for England
• Check Natural Resources Wales for Welsh flood alerts
• The SEPA website covers Scotland

Protect Your Property

• Clear drains and gutters to prevent blockages
• Move valuables upstairs if you are in a flood-risk area
• Consider flood barriers for doorways if you have experienced flooding before
• Keep sandbags available (many councils provide these during flood events)

Stay Safe on the Roads

• Avoid driving through floodwater; the depth is impossible to judge
• Allow extra time for journeys and check routes before setting off
• Keep your phone charged in case you need to call for assistance

Look After Your Wellbeing

Persistent grey, wet weather can genuinely affect mood and energy levels. Make an effort to get outside during any dry spells, even briefly. Daylight exposure helps, and the days are getting noticeably longer as we move through February.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is 2026 the wettest year on record for the UK?

It is too early to say. We are only seven weeks into the year, and total annual rainfall depends on conditions across all twelve months. However, the start of 2026 has been exceptionally wet by any measure, with several regional records already broken. Whether it becomes a record year overall depends on what happens from spring onwards.

Why do some areas flood more than others?

Several factors determine flood risk: the volume and intensity of rainfall, the type of soil and rock (clay soils drain poorly), the steepness of the terrain, whether rivers and drainage systems can cope, and how much development has occurred on natural floodplains. Areas like the Somerset Levels are particularly vulnerable because they sit at or near sea level with limited natural drainage.

Has the UK always had winters this wet?

The UK has always had wet winters, but the data shows a trend toward more intense rainfall events. The Met Office's analysis of long-term records indicates that heavy rainfall events are becoming heavier, even as total annual rainfall has remained fairly stable. The 2013/2014 winter was previously the benchmark for extreme winter wetness in recent memory, and 2025/2026 is drawing similar comparisons.

Could the rain cause water shortages later in the year?

Counterintuitively, a very wet winter does not guarantee water security through the summer. Reservoirs and aquifers do recharge during winter rainfall, but if summer 2026 turns dry and hot (as 2025 did), supplies can deplete quickly. The pattern of extreme swings between wet and dry makes water management increasingly challenging.

What is the difference between a flood warning and a flood alert?

A flood alert means flooding is possible and you should be prepared. A flood warning means flooding is expected and you should take immediate action to protect yourself and your property. A severe flood warning means there is a danger to life and you should act immediately. Always take these warnings seriously.